Winter is likely to be less severe in Rajasthan this time, which may keep day and night temperatures above normal. Strong El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean are projected to persist until December.
These indications have emerged in the forecast issued by the Meteorological Centre, New Delhi for the month of November. Accordingly, minimum and maximum temperatures in Rajasthan and Gujarat are estimated to remain 2 to 4 degrees Celsius above normal.
Western Disturbances and impact on temperature
According to Jaipur Meteorological Centre Director Radheshyam Sharma, neutral conditions of El Nino in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean Dipole in the Indian Ocean are prevailing. Its effect will also be visible on the upcoming winter season, indicating less rainfall and higher temperatures in November.
Experts say that Western Disturbances are the main factor behind winter in north and central India. Global wind circulation is affected due to a strong El Nino, which impacts the frequency of western disturbances.
Situation and background of previous years
Snowfall in hilly states and rain in plains increase cold and moisture. In the previous season, the mercury in Mount Abu had dropped to minus 5 degrees in January, while temperatures were also recorded below freezing in Nagaur and Fatehpur.
Earlier, on October 28, 2026, an alert was issued for light to moderate rain and strong winds in the state till October 31 due to the impact of cyclone 'Arnab'.